By Maria Eirini Liodi

Just three days after the resumption of oil flows through the Kazakh Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) following a week-long pause caused by drone strikes, a renewed attack brought heightened volatility back to the region. Two Greek-operated crude oil tankers, Marshall Islands-flagged Nissos Sifnos, and Isle of Man-flagged Marathi were struck by drones near the CPC offshore terminal in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk early on Thursday 30 July.

This brings the total number of incidents involving international vessels exporting Kazakh oil to at least seven in July. Prior to Thursday’s attack, Asia and Nissos Ios vessels were also attacked while loading at the Novorossiysk port on 17-19 July. The CPC is a vital piece of Kazakh critical infrastructure, responsible for almost 80% of the country’s total oil exports. The attacks of 17–19 July caused a significant drop in exports, cutting daily output to less than half the June average.

Given the scale of the disruption, Kazakhstan’s government has voiced significant concern, prompting a call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev yesterday, in which both sides emphasized the need for energy security and protection of critical infrastructure in the region.

Though Russian facilities such as the neighbouring Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk, which handles Russian-origin crude, are impacted by U.S. and EU sanctions, the CPC is not. The U.S. Treasury has held that CPC crude is exempt from Russia-related sanctions, and previously issued a general license specifically authorizing transactions related to the CPC and Tengizchevroil projects. A geographic complication is that the CPC pipeline runs roughly 1,500 kilometers from the Tengiz field in western Kazakhstan, through Russian territory, to the Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk. This route places it squarely in the crossfire of the Russia-Ukraine war.

While neither Ukraine nor Russia has claimed official responsibility for any of these attacks, Ukraine did confirm that it had struck four Russian tankers in the Black and Azov seas overnight.

Beyond Kazakhstan’s own interests, the government has sought to put this issue on the international map because of its broader implications. On the private industry side, repeated strikes raise shipping and insurance concerns for the international vessels operating in the Black Sea, from higher war-risk premiums to crew safety. Such concerns were echoed by Greek maritime security company Marisks, which stated that the attacks reveal the conflict’s impact on international maritime energy infrastructure.

Alongside that, U.S. interests are also directly exposed through key companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil – with the former holding 15% stake of CPC and ExxonMobil 7.5%. Other relevant western shareholders include Eni, TotalEnergies, and Shell.

As for international markets, Kazakh exports through the CPC correspond to 2% of global crude oil exports, hence, a disruption to the pipeline has the potential to significantly impact global energy prices, compounding the effect from disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the CPC’s exports go to Europe.

As tensions continue in the Persian Gulf and concerns over Red Sea shipping persist, continued halts in exports at Novorossiysk remove more than 1 million bpd of Kazakh crude from global circulation adding to an already pressured global oil trade system. The latest attacks have already prompted a response from global shipping – five tankers bound for Novorossiysk altered their routes on Thursday, toward Turkey and Spain or updated their navigation status to “for orders.”

Whether or not international actors can facilitate a halt in the repeated disruption remains to be seen.